Why Keir Starmer's defence push risk falling well short of UK needs

Sir Keir Starmer's promised defence plan is welcome if underwhelming. Speaking from the BAE Systems factory on Monday, the PM promised to spend billions on new weapons factories, drones and submarines. For defence hawks, the possibility of raiding the welfare and aid budgets to make this happen is welcome if overdue.

Yet the lack of commitment of when to spend 3 per cent of economic output on defence - plus the fact much of this spending will likely be eaten up by inflation - is concerning. With an eye towards China and Russia, the Government commits £1.5bn to build six new factories, as well as delivering up to 7,000 long-range weapons including missiles or drones. The UK will also build "up to" 12 new attack submarines.

Of course, if this is about preparedness for war - including the possibility of a China-Taiwan conflict towards the decade's end - there needs also to be a commitment to food and energy security as much as weapons. No defence plan is complete without being holistic.

Given how cut to the bone the UK armed forces have been, there is still a mountain to climb, and this plan may fall well short. Frankly the primary goal must be filling gaps in ammunition, infrastructure and logistics, plus boosting recruitment.

Labour also needs to make good on diverting cash from elsewhere if needed. The UK's fiscal headroom - thanks to decades of Labour and Tory waste - is limited, and there are far less votes in defence spending than commitments to health and welfare.

Moreover, as things stand, Labour won't be in office to see much of this through. True, politics is a marathon, not a sprint - and Reform may be peaking early - yet, as things stand, Nigel Farage is on course to be the next PM and oversee national defence.

However, should a major war break out before the next election, slated for 2029 (for example, if China invades or blockades Taiwan) then a rally-around-the-flag effect could save Labour.

To be fair meanwhile, this defence plan is not without merit. Much is to be welcomed. But will Labour live to see it through, be willing to divert cash from the aid and welfare budgets, or guarantee that much of the cash isn't swallowed up by inflation?

The Conservatives' criticism of course isn't worth spit given how much the last government ran defence into the ground. But it would be good to hear Reform's ideas more fully. The UK has a lot of ground to make up - while time may be running out before a major war erupts in Asia - but Sir Keir has made at least a stab at improvements. Yet the devil, as they say, may well be in the detail.