Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly round-up of top international news. Trump ’s reciprocal tariffs have sent shockwaves throughout the world; Ukraine sees a horrific Russian missile attack on Zelenskyy’s hometown of Kryvyi Rih that kills nine children; Len Pen gets convicted in France; Modi & Yunus have a frosty meet in Bangkok; and India-China ties remain cold on the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations. So let’s get to it:
Trump tariffs roil world: The biggest news of the past week was Trump’s announcement of so-called reciprocal tariffs against most countries in the world. A 10% baseline tariff was announced for almost all countries and additional tariffs were imposed on most major trading partners of the US. The latter included China (34%), India (26%), Vietnam (46%), EU (20%) and Japan (26%). But what left people baffled was that even small nations or territories – Lesotho (50%) and Falkland Islands (41%) – were not spared Trump’s tariff machine gun. Apparently, the calculation of the tariffs to be applied was worked out through a crazy formula that targeted US’s trade deficits with its trading partners. Many economists have labelled this unscientific. Given the power of the US dollar and its status as the world’s reserve currency, it’s natural for the US to notch up deficits. Add to this the low saving rate in the US which is the foundation of a consumption-driven economy.
Washington, meanwhile, has urged countries not to retaliate to the tariffs and has signalled its openness to doing bilateral trade deals with individual countries to address the tariffs. Therefore, most countries are now in a wait-and-watch mode and sending trade negotiation delegations to the US. But China is different. It is the only major country to have hit back so far with its own 34% tariff on US goods. That’s because the theory is China is one country that Trump will not negotiate with. He and his political base blame Beijing for “ripping off” the US through trade. Therefore, while the tariffs for other countries are a negotiating tool, tariffs for China are part of Washington’s great-power competition with Beijing. In fact, we had a great article by Japanese expert Satoru Nagao along these lines for the Times of India Edit Page
But with world markets in turmoil, there is going to be near-term pain. Countries will have to adapt, work out deals with US and re-route supply chains. It will get quite bumpy before things calm down.
Russia mocking ceasefire?: This week will mark a month since Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. Yet, there are no signs that Russia is in a mood to accept any such pause in the war. Moscow has continued to hit Ukrainian cities, towns and other civilian sites. The past week saw a particularly horrific ballistic missile strike in the Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih that killed 19 people including nine children. Kryvyi Rih is the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy . And the missile struck next to a playground and a restaurant in the middle of apartment buildings. The heart-wrenching videos of sobbing parents sitting next to the lifeless bodies of their children in the streets should shake the conscience of the world. No parent should live to see such days.
But this brings us to the main point: What will it take to stop Russia? So far, Trump has been giving Putin the kid-glove treatment. But even he has to realise that Moscow is just stringing him along. It has no intension of stopping the war – it has been making ridiculous demands like a transitional government in Ukraine, something that Washington has rejected. Putin has to show victory. In the Russian leader’s frame, it appears that anything less will make him less worthy of being the Russian President. Therefore, how long a rope should Washington give Moscow while innocent Ukrainian children die?
The only realistic chance for peace under the circumstances is to shore up military support for Ukraine and have a European peacekeeping force to monitor the ceasefire (ideally the US should send peacekeepers but we know that’s not happening). Russia must be made to accept the ceasefire. It is unlikely to stop on its own.
Marine Le Pen convicted: In a blow for the far-right in France, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen has been convicted by a court for embezzlement of Euro 2.9 million in EU funds between 2004 and 2016 for use by her party. This automatically disqualifies her from running for office for five years. With the next presidential elections due in 2027, this is a serious setback for Le Pen and the right-wing in France. Sure, Le Pen is appealing the ruling. And she has received support from fellow European right-wing leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. But the ruling does somewhat spike the right-wing movement across Europe.
Whether this will further polarise France and European society remains to be seen. And this of course comes at a crucial moment for Europe. With the war in Ukraine already straining the Trans-Atlantic alliance with the US and some EU nations questioning the bloc’s support for Kyiv, European unity is already being put to a severe test. Russia, of course, will relish European polarisation and disunity. It will make it easy for Moscow to pick off vulnerable countries on the continent one by one. Therefore, it is vitally important that Europe stays united and doesn’t let political differences undermine European solidarity and unity. This is needed now more than ever. Otherwise, Europe’s adversaries will be the only ones smiling.
Modi-Yunus meet: PM Modi and Bangladeshi interim government chief adviser Muhammad Yunus met on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok last week. This was the first meeting between the two since Sheikh Hasina's ouster last year. But the meeting, though a welcome one, was far from smooth. Already India has accused the Bangladeshi side of putting out a more rosy briefing of the meeting than what actually transpired. There are, after all, fundamental differences between the two sides. India is concerned about Bangladeshi minorities who have increasingly come under attacks and intimidation since the Yunus regime took over. Many believe, not without merit, that Bangladesh is once again marching towards becoming East Pakistan. New Delhi is absolutely right in insisting that elections be held in Bangladesh at an early date. And those elections must include the Awami League.
But the Yunus administration is pre-occupied with seeking Hasina's extradition from India and purging Bangladeshi institutions of Awami League supporters and appointees. Such a path will only ensure that one set of biases is replaced with another set. And Bangladesh will repeat its vicious cycle of political instability.
If Yunus is to leave behind a credible legacy, he must hold free and fair polls in Bangladesh that includes all parties. And he must stop the witch-hunt within Bangladeshi institutions and make them meritocratic and professional. Otherwise, he will end up making the same mistakes Hasina made.
An uneasy India-China thaw: Last week saw India and China observe the 75th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations. The occasion saw leaders of the two countries exchange pleasantries and Xi Jinping waxed eloquent about an “elephant-dragon tango”. But notwithstanding a thaw in ties since a border patrolling pact was worked out by the two sides last October, India-China relations remain tense. More than 50,000 troops from each side remain ranged against each other at Himalayan heights. And this is unlikely to change in the near future because China has shown no interest to seriously resolve the border issue. The latter is fundamental to bilateral ties. Yet, Beijing wants to compartmentalise the border problem and move ahead with other areas of the relationship. But that just can’t happen after Galwan.
Thankfully, GOI is not lifting curbs and restrictions on Chinese investments in place since 2020. Given that ownership of Chinese companies remains opaque – with many big players having ties to the Chinese Communist Party or the PLA – India can never be too careful. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs mean that China may dump a lot of cheap goods on countries like India, causing domestic market turmoil. Therefore, India needs to keep its guard up. And with China and US now locked in a full-blown strategic tussle, India needs to be careful of the fallout.
Trump tariffs roil world: The biggest news of the past week was Trump’s announcement of so-called reciprocal tariffs against most countries in the world. A 10% baseline tariff was announced for almost all countries and additional tariffs were imposed on most major trading partners of the US. The latter included China (34%), India (26%), Vietnam (46%), EU (20%) and Japan (26%). But what left people baffled was that even small nations or territories – Lesotho (50%) and Falkland Islands (41%) – were not spared Trump’s tariff machine gun. Apparently, the calculation of the tariffs to be applied was worked out through a crazy formula that targeted US’s trade deficits with its trading partners. Many economists have labelled this unscientific. Given the power of the US dollar and its status as the world’s reserve currency, it’s natural for the US to notch up deficits. Add to this the low saving rate in the US which is the foundation of a consumption-driven economy.
Washington, meanwhile, has urged countries not to retaliate to the tariffs and has signalled its openness to doing bilateral trade deals with individual countries to address the tariffs. Therefore, most countries are now in a wait-and-watch mode and sending trade negotiation delegations to the US. But China is different. It is the only major country to have hit back so far with its own 34% tariff on US goods. That’s because the theory is China is one country that Trump will not negotiate with. He and his political base blame Beijing for “ripping off” the US through trade. Therefore, while the tariffs for other countries are a negotiating tool, tariffs for China are part of Washington’s great-power competition with Beijing. In fact, we had a great article by Japanese expert Satoru Nagao along these lines for the Times of India Edit Page
But with world markets in turmoil, there is going to be near-term pain. Countries will have to adapt, work out deals with US and re-route supply chains. It will get quite bumpy before things calm down.
Russia mocking ceasefire?: This week will mark a month since Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. Yet, there are no signs that Russia is in a mood to accept any such pause in the war. Moscow has continued to hit Ukrainian cities, towns and other civilian sites. The past week saw a particularly horrific ballistic missile strike in the Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih that killed 19 people including nine children. Kryvyi Rih is the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy . And the missile struck next to a playground and a restaurant in the middle of apartment buildings. The heart-wrenching videos of sobbing parents sitting next to the lifeless bodies of their children in the streets should shake the conscience of the world. No parent should live to see such days.
But this brings us to the main point: What will it take to stop Russia? So far, Trump has been giving Putin the kid-glove treatment. But even he has to realise that Moscow is just stringing him along. It has no intension of stopping the war – it has been making ridiculous demands like a transitional government in Ukraine, something that Washington has rejected. Putin has to show victory. In the Russian leader’s frame, it appears that anything less will make him less worthy of being the Russian President. Therefore, how long a rope should Washington give Moscow while innocent Ukrainian children die?
The only realistic chance for peace under the circumstances is to shore up military support for Ukraine and have a European peacekeeping force to monitor the ceasefire (ideally the US should send peacekeepers but we know that’s not happening). Russia must be made to accept the ceasefire. It is unlikely to stop on its own.
Marine Le Pen convicted: In a blow for the far-right in France, National Rally leader Marine Le Pen has been convicted by a court for embezzlement of Euro 2.9 million in EU funds between 2004 and 2016 for use by her party. This automatically disqualifies her from running for office for five years. With the next presidential elections due in 2027, this is a serious setback for Le Pen and the right-wing in France. Sure, Le Pen is appealing the ruling. And she has received support from fellow European right-wing leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni. But the ruling does somewhat spike the right-wing movement across Europe.
Whether this will further polarise France and European society remains to be seen. And this of course comes at a crucial moment for Europe. With the war in Ukraine already straining the Trans-Atlantic alliance with the US and some EU nations questioning the bloc’s support for Kyiv, European unity is already being put to a severe test. Russia, of course, will relish European polarisation and disunity. It will make it easy for Moscow to pick off vulnerable countries on the continent one by one. Therefore, it is vitally important that Europe stays united and doesn’t let political differences undermine European solidarity and unity. This is needed now more than ever. Otherwise, Europe’s adversaries will be the only ones smiling.
Modi-Yunus meet: PM Modi and Bangladeshi interim government chief adviser Muhammad Yunus met on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok last week. This was the first meeting between the two since Sheikh Hasina's ouster last year. But the meeting, though a welcome one, was far from smooth. Already India has accused the Bangladeshi side of putting out a more rosy briefing of the meeting than what actually transpired. There are, after all, fundamental differences between the two sides. India is concerned about Bangladeshi minorities who have increasingly come under attacks and intimidation since the Yunus regime took over. Many believe, not without merit, that Bangladesh is once again marching towards becoming East Pakistan. New Delhi is absolutely right in insisting that elections be held in Bangladesh at an early date. And those elections must include the Awami League.
But the Yunus administration is pre-occupied with seeking Hasina's extradition from India and purging Bangladeshi institutions of Awami League supporters and appointees. Such a path will only ensure that one set of biases is replaced with another set. And Bangladesh will repeat its vicious cycle of political instability.
If Yunus is to leave behind a credible legacy, he must hold free and fair polls in Bangladesh that includes all parties. And he must stop the witch-hunt within Bangladeshi institutions and make them meritocratic and professional. Otherwise, he will end up making the same mistakes Hasina made.
An uneasy India-China thaw: Last week saw India and China observe the 75th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations. The occasion saw leaders of the two countries exchange pleasantries and Xi Jinping waxed eloquent about an “elephant-dragon tango”. But notwithstanding a thaw in ties since a border patrolling pact was worked out by the two sides last October, India-China relations remain tense. More than 50,000 troops from each side remain ranged against each other at Himalayan heights. And this is unlikely to change in the near future because China has shown no interest to seriously resolve the border issue. The latter is fundamental to bilateral ties. Yet, Beijing wants to compartmentalise the border problem and move ahead with other areas of the relationship. But that just can’t happen after Galwan.
Thankfully, GOI is not lifting curbs and restrictions on Chinese investments in place since 2020. Given that ownership of Chinese companies remains opaque – with many big players having ties to the Chinese Communist Party or the PLA – India can never be too careful. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs mean that China may dump a lot of cheap goods on countries like India, causing domestic market turmoil. Therefore, India needs to keep its guard up. And with China and US now locked in a full-blown strategic tussle, India needs to be careful of the fallout.
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